The India-Bangladesh relationship, once characterized by strong historical ties and strategic cooperation, is now facing serious challenges. Despite their shared history, particularly India’s crucial role in Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971, recent geopolitical developments have led to strains in their bilateral ties. Many analysts are now asking: How did India lose Bangladesh to Pakistan and China?
Historical Context: India’s Role in Bangladesh’s Independence
The India-Bangladesh relationship was founded on deep emotional and historical bonds. During the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, India played a pivotal role in the creation of Bangladesh by providing military support against Pakistan. This shared history created a sense of goodwill and cooperation that persisted for decades.
However, the relationship has faced ups and downs since the end of the Cold War, with the recent developments indicating a shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy focus. The question on many minds today is how India, despite its historical support for Bangladesh, has lost ground to both Pakistan and China.
The Growing Influence of Pakistan
Over the years, Pakistan has managed to improve its diplomatic ties with Bangladesh, particularly in recent years. While historical animosities from the 1971 war are not easily forgotten, there has been a noticeable shift in Bangladesh’s approach to Pakistan. Economic cooperation, trade, and mutual security concerns have created opportunities for Pakistan to regain influence in Bangladesh. Tensions between India and Bangladesh, especially on issues like water-sharing of the Teesta river and border disputes, have been exploited by Pakistan to strengthen its ties with Dhaka.
Additionally, Pakistan has strategically maintained strong cultural and religious ties with Bangladesh’s Islamic community, which has enabled it to gain influence in certain sectors of Bangladeshi society. This has allowed Pakistan to gradually position itself as a counterbalance to India’s traditional dominance in the region.
China’s Growing Footprint in Bangladesh
However, the biggest shift in the India-Bangladesh relationship is China’s growing influence. Over the last decade, China has emerged as a major economic and strategic partner for Bangladesh. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has brought in significant Chinese investments, especially in infrastructure projects like ports, roads, and railways. China’s financial support has helped Bangladesh modernize its infrastructure without the same conditionalities that typically come with aid from India or Western countries.
Moreover, Bangladesh’s desire to diversify its foreign partnerships, reducing dependence on India, has allowed China to make inroads in a way that India could not counter. The increasing presence of Chinese technology firms, construction companies, and even military cooperation has further tilted Bangladesh towards Beijing. The allure of Chinese investments and economic opportunities has led Dhaka to cautiously distance itself from India in favor of closer ties with China.
Key Areas of Strain
1. Border Tensions and Water Disputes: One of the key issues that have strained India-Bangladesh relations is border security. Despite shared interests in tackling extremism, both countries have occasionally faced tensions along their border, particularly with regard to illegal immigration and refugee crises. Additionally, the Teesta river dispute, where Bangladesh seeks a more favorable water-sharing agreement, has long been a point of contention between the two nations.
2. Regional Geopolitical Shifts: Bangladesh’s shifting geopolitical stance also stems from India's regional policies. The increasing focus on countering China has sometimes left Bangladesh feeling caught in the middle, as Dhaka does not want to be forced into choosing sides. Bangladesh’s desire to maintain good relations with China, a growing economic power in Asia, is seen as a pragmatic approach to securing its own future in the face of an increasingly polarized global environment.
3. Economic Competition: India, despite its economic power, has not been able to match China’s financial leverage in Bangladesh. Chinese investments in infrastructure have created a strong economic foundation for China’s growing influence, while India has struggled to offer Bangladesh the same level of long-term, low-interest loans or investments. This has led to Bangladesh seeking economic partnerships beyond India’s sphere of influence.
Conclusion: A New Era in India-Bangladesh Relations
India’s historical and cultural ties with Bangladesh remain strong, but the country’s strategic and economic priorities have evolved. Pakistan and China have managed to gain influence in Bangladesh by exploiting opportunities in areas where India has faced difficulties, whether due to unresolved disputes, economic limitations, or regional power shifts. As India navigates these challenges, it will need to rethink its approach to its neighbors, focusing on economic cooperation, diplomatic engagement, and strategic balance to maintain its influence in the region.
While the relationship is far from irreparable, the dynamics of South Asian geopolitics have fundamentally shifted, and India must act swiftly to reassert its role as Bangladesh’s key ally in the years ahead.
